In February 2025, the Political Studies Association (PSA) Environment Group and the PSA Elections, Public Opinion and Parties Group (EPOP) co-organised a one-day academic workshop on elections and climate change. The final panel was titled ‘Reasons to be Cheerful’. In this second guest post, panellist Ed Matthew shares his reflections on the theme.
On 17th March, the Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch made a speech, announcing that the Conservative Party would abandon support for the 2050 net zero target. This was an extraordinary shot in the foot for a party that enshrined the net zero target in legislation under the May administration in 2019. Since then, 141 countries have followed that lead or pledged to reach net-zero, representing almost 80% of the world’s population and economic output. Badenoch has not only destroyed cross party consensus on net zero. She has disowned what is arguably one of the Conservative Party’s greatest ever achievements.
Internationally, global action on climate change also seems to have been wrecked by the election of Trump, as he de-funds climate science, vows to pull the US out of the Paris Agreement (again) and undermines clean energy investment.
At a time when the effects of climate heating disasters are already causing havoc and costing lives, these developments are deeply disturbing. They showcase a political movement which in some countries has been captured by fossil fuel interests and who are prepared to throw current and future generations under the bus for short term political expediency.
And yet, all is not lost.
In the UK, public opinion on climate action is much more united than the politics suggests. According to polling conducted by More in Common for E3G, almost four in five people want the government to take more ambitious action to combat climate change and over two-thirds of the population are somewhat or very concerned by the issue, including a majority of Conservative and Reform voters.
The culture war on net-zero is being run by an out of touch political elite. Polling clearly shows that the vast majority of voters understand that the huge spike in energy bills in recent years is due to our dependence on high-cost fossil fuels and additional drilling in the rapidly declining North Sea basic will make almost no difference to how much they pay at the pump.
That fossil fuel dependence saw energy bills almost double for a typical household from £1,300 to £2,500 following the Russian invasion of Ukraine – which would have been over £4,000 had the Government not stepped in to provide support. As a result, the Government spent almost £100 billion supporting homes and businesses during the energy crisis. This is raw, bill payer pain that they will not forget in a hurry. Nigel Farage and Kemi Badenoch can try to pin the blame on renewables but no-one believes them because let’s face it, everyone knows they are spinning an outrageous lie.
The assertion by Badenoch that net zero investment would bankrupt Britain is also patently absurd and she offered no evidence to back it up. On the other hand, the Climate Change Committee has set out a clear roadmap for how the transition to net-zero can be achieved affordably, creating a net saving for the country before 2050.
Business and industry are also strongly united behind ambitious action to decarbonise the economy. Analysis by the CBI has shown that the UK clean economy grew 10% last year, three times faster than the rest of the economy. The foundation of the transition is built on economics, not populist idealism. If the Tories and Reform want to abandon the UK’s most successful economic sector and undermine the development of renewables, then they are asking voters to vote for high energy bills and economic decline – a recipe which would torpedo any efforts to generate the growth needed to invest in public services.
Meanwhile, the British clean economy will continue to boom over the next 5 years, creating tens of thousands more jobs across the country. The UK has already reduced its emissions by 54% and by 2030 this may have reduced to 68% if the Government gets on track to its targets. Labour has set out a mission to turn the UK into a clean energy superpower and they are putting in place to legislation, regulation and investment to get on track. Electric vehicles are now half the price of owning a petrol car and moving to a clean power system could reduce electricity bills by over £200 by 2030 according to E3G analysis if the right reforms are enacted.
At a global level, the net zero transition is also building momentum. In 2024, £2 trillion was invested in clean energy, against $1 trillion that was invested in fossil fuel energy. That meta trend is a result of renewable energy being cheaper than fossil fuels in most parts of the world.
Renewables met 92% of total global electricity capacity expansion in 2024 and 40% of all electricity generation around the world came from clean sources last year. The cost of battery storage is plummeting, dropping from $700/kWh to around $100/kWh in the past decade.
Fossil generation has not only decoupled from demand growth in the West, it is also now beginning to decouple in China due to the accelerated pace of clean deployment. There is also good reason to think that fossil fuel emissions in China may now have peaked. China has already reached its target of 1,200 gigawatts of solar and wind power six years early. Electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids have now hit 50% of car sales in China and could hit 70% by end of this decade. We are not far now from reaching peak fossil fuel demand. As soon as the financial market marks that moment, it is game over for fossil fuels as confidence begins to collapse and the risk of stranded assets rises.
In the US itself, the country is far more resilient than it first appears to Trump’s efforts to destroy the clean economy. Half of the US states are under Democratic control and the fightback starts there. But even in Republican states the clean energy revolution is accelerating. Under the Biden administration, over $1 trillion in clean energy investment was unleashed, much of it going to Republican States, scaling pre-existing clean energy industries. Most will fight any attempt to undermine that investment.
The energy transition in America is now firmly driven at State level, with solar and wind consistently undercutting fossil fuels. The battery and solar supply chains are firmly entrenched in southern, Red states, which are also home to three quarters of wind deployment since 2010. The vast majority of heat pump sales, which make 55% of all new heating system sales across the US, are also concentrated in Republican states. It is also worth remembering that under Trumps last presidency, coal fired power stations closed at a faster rate than under Obama. They will continue to close under this presidency.
What all this data tells you is that the clean energy revolution is accelerating, even in Trump’s US. Any country that tries to slow down the transition is just carrying out an act of economic self-harm and damaging its energy independence.
This is a clear choice:
- Do we remain dependent on oil cartels and volatile fossil fuel markets, or do we take control of our energy future and lower our bills?
- Do we risk economic decline, or invest in a high-tech, thriving future?
No matter the ideological spin from politicians or media moguls tied to the fossil fuel lobby, one thing is clear: the transition to net zero is not just necessary – it’s unstoppable.
Bio: Ed Matthew is one of the most experienced climate campaigners in the UK. He oversees E3G’s UK programme and has worked at E3G since 2010. Campaigns he has worked on include: The Climate Change Act; Feed in Tariff legislation; Green Investment Bank; Energy efficiency funding; Net Zero Legislation; UK Infrastructure Bank; Heat electrification; end to public fossil fuel finance overseas; and Net Zero Transition Plans. Many of these solutions have been replicated around the world. Ed is passionate about campaigning in alliance for policies that make the net zero transition affordable for everyone and maximise the huge economic benefits. He lives in Bristol and loves wild swimming with his family. Find him on Bluesky.
